Real Vision CEO and macro investor Raoul Pal says that he expects Ethereum (ETH) to pull a 400% rally in the next 4 months at a minimum.
Speaking in an interview with InvestAnswers, Pal reiterates his max target for ETH this bull cycle of $40,000, likely by summer. He names his “base case” at $20,000 by March 2022 at the latest.
“I’m using base case probabilities, no certainties. I still think ETH finishes this year close to $15,000 then to $10,000, just by the nature of what is actually going on right now, and the chart patterns, the people who are coming into the space. I actually still see ETH potentially, the small probability upside is that it hits $40,000 by the summer.”
That’s because of the staking cycle, and how the charts look, and using the logarithmic chart, extending it forward and a number of things give me that. It’s not my base case, my base case would be $20,000 by March at the latest.”
The former Goldman Sachs executive also predicted that the typical dramatic bear markets previously seen in crypto will become a thing of the past moving forward. According to Pal, the crypto markets will go into a more boring 50% correction and consolidation phase, rather than a scary bearish cycle. He expects this to happen right after Ethereum temporarily “flips” Bitcoin to become the biggest crypto asset on the list.
“My guess is that this cycle, we don’t a proper elongated bear market, and by elongated bear market I don’t mean down 80%, I’m talking about down 50% and it stays down for nine months and it bores everybody out kind of thing.
I think that happens when the flippening happens, and we’ll readjust again, and Bitcoin will become the larger of it.”
Pal has previously speculated that Ethereum is following the same price action that Bitcoin went through in its bull cycle between 2013 and 2017. Being a relatively newer technology, earlier on in its adoption cycle, means a more parabolic upward move for ETH than BTC, according to the Real Vision CEO. Based on that, Pal has been open about ETH making up a large majority over his portfolio rather than BTC.
“So why that allocation? Nothing against Bitcoin, it’s not against anything else, it’s because I’m a financial markets guy and we use risk curves. So at certain points in the cycle, in the middle of the bull market you want to take as much risk as possible, so you want to go to the more speculative end of the market.”