Bitcoin is currently a combination of peak fear sentiment and bullish on-chain fundamentals, according to popular analyst Willy Woo.
Speaking on the What Bitcoin Did podcast with Peter McCormack, Woo says BTC’s bull market remains intact, and that traders looking for more capitulation to the downside will probably be forced to enter higher.
“Structurally, on-chain, it’s not a bear market setup. Even though I would say we’re at peak fear. No doubt about it, people are really scared, which is typically… an opportunity to buy.
You don’t often get this kind of pullback without it relief-bouncing even. You don’t sort of slide, slide, slide and then capitulate. We’ve come down from $69,000 to $33,000. It’d be hard pressed to capitulate from $33,000 down to say, $20,000, because that’s like retracing something like the 2018 bear market over two and a half months instead of a year right.”
Despite currently being 45% down from its all-time highs, Woo says that “structurally, [Bitcoin] is very very strong,” and that the bearish price action is mostly driven by derivatives traders.
“Demand started to come back, and the hodlers that were slightly being just dispirited by the futures traders selling down have stopped selling. They’re rebounding now, and there’s accumulation coming.
Woo suggests that whales – Bitcoin holders with more than 1,000 BTC – are starting to pile into the market, and that many of them are “potentially institutional investors” who are “starting to flip over to buying…
They peaked their selling in December, so you could say institutions were selling down in December, which is kind of a part of their normal cycle – they sell down, they redeploy in January.”
Another hallmark of bear markets that Woo says isn’t present is when newbies become the majority of coin holders. Unlike the bear run of 2018, Woo says this is currently not the case.
“The 2018 bear was at peak new guys holding the coins, and the cycle repeats. Those guys either sell or the ones that don’t become hardened hodlers and they sell on the next rally when it goes even higher.”