September 26, 2021 - Catching Tokens BEFORE They Explode!

Hey Guys,

Sometimes it may seem that cryptocurrencies move in bizarre ways. One moment, there is almost no price action on a coin and the next day, it explodes seemingly out of the blue.

However, in reality, all of these moves can be preempted. It’s all about knowing which factors drive a cryptocurrency price pump. Factors that are completely public and tracked by numerous market participants.

So, what are those factors? And how can they be used to your advantage?

Today, I give you a 101 guide to tracking potential price pumps. It’s an overview of some of the most important metrics and events to track as well as the tools you can use to keep ahead of the pack.

You can watch that video here.

📊 Portfolio Update 📊

No changes in the portfolio this week folks. There was way too much volatility and I don’t see any really attractive opportunities at the moment. The reality is that we are not fully out of the woods when it comes to market volatility (see next section). So it’s prudent to keep that dry powder.

There are some projects in my sights though. I may be allocating a bit more to AR, especially if the Solana rally continues. I am also looking into Helium which has so far flown under my radar (will be doing a video later this week). You can keep up with my market moves in my dedicated Telegram channel.

ETH 24.67% | BTC 21.64% | SOL 14.39% | DOT 7.50% | PAXG 6.18% | USDC 5.25% | ADA 5.12% | ATOM 4.88% | UST 3.17% | RUNE 1.96% | INJ 1.71% | AR 1.21% | LINK 1.10% | MATIC 1.04% | LIT 0.19%

📈 Thoughts on Market 📈

So far, this September has been keeping up the tradition of prior Septembers. If you don’t know what I mean, give a gander to this neat chart that shows you the BTC ROI by month. September has historically been one of the bloodiest months for Bitcoin, and it looks like this month is going to continue that trend. The question is what comes next, and this is where things aren’t entirely clear.

In terms of technicals, BTC is stuck between a rock and a hard place, specifically the 200-day and 128-day moving averages, both of which are significant zones of resistance and support, respectively. As I mentioned in my video about my own personal trading strategy, these are zones that I watch closely. If we fall below the 128-day MA we could be in for some hurt, and even enter another bear slump like the one we saw after the crash back in May.

When it comes to on-chain though, things are looking pretty damn strong. Exchange balances of BTC and ETH continue to fall, and the percentage of BTC held by whales continues to rise. This basically means people are HODling and big money is buying the dip.

This is certainly reassuring, but the increased volatility has resulted in a lot of liquidations from overleveraged traders. According ByBit, over 1.2 billion in BTC futures were liquidated over the last 7 days, and that sell pressure is clearly reflected in BTC’s price (those big bottom wicks on the daily candles).

Obviously all of these liquidations happened because of those Evergrande fears which I’ll come back to in a moment. Right now, what you need to know is that another bearish bombshell could be coming to the crypto market, and that’s the passing of the infamous infrastructure bill. It looks like US politicians have agreed to vote to finally pass the bill tomorrow at which point all it takes is a signature from the president to become law.

For those unfamiliar, this infrastructure bill contains not one but two anti-crypto clauses. The first requires poorly defined cryptocurrency ‘brokers’ to collect KYC on all of their customers, and the second requires reporting any cryptocurrency transaction worth more than 10,000$.

This reporting is quite cumbersome and also involves collecting KYC from the counterparty. Neither of these two amendments are ideal, and the second one could make it impossible to interact with DeFi protocols as identity information about decentralized smart contracts doesn’t exist.

On the bright side, it looks like the crypto market has already priced in these potential threats. Even if the market does dip tomorrow, it will only be because of a few FUDsters combined with that low volatility.

Big investors seem to be pretty comfortable with their continued allocations, and I reckon that has something to do with the increasing amount of influence they have over regulators like the SEC. If you didn’t get that memo, be sure to watch this video.

🇨🇳 The Good, The Bad & The Ugly! 🇨🇳

That Good Ol’ China FUD. Back with a vengeance this week on multiple fronts.

On Friday, we had one of the biggest crackdowns yet by the Peoples Bank of China on cryptocurrency businesses. The reason that this is one of the most consequential is because for the first time, it makes crypto-to-crypto transactions illegal. This includes those that are done on offshore exchanges.

They have not stopped there…

They also want to go after anyone who works for offshore exchanges offering services to citizens outside of China. So, if you live in China and work for any sort of crypto related exchange, you are liable to prosecution.

This was also the first time that the authorities in China have mentioned Tether in their disclosure. For those that have any knowledge of the Chinese OTC market, USDT is one of the most popular methods by which people have been able to trade in and out of Bitcoin in the country.

But beyond what was said in these statements, one of the most important factors about these announcements is that they come with teeth. There were 10 agencies involved in the notice including three branches of China’s judicial system. This means that they are actively going to start pursuing cases against citizens for operating in violation of the ban.

According to a China watcher in this post, the crackdown is much more meaningful than the mining ban from earlier in the year. He said “It could easily be construed as making anything related to crypto possibly illegal under the menu of statutes the notice cites.”

So, something to worry about?

No, not really. Yes, prices fell on Friday as an immediate reaction to it, but it really wasn’t that meaningful in the context of crypto price swings.

Also, this “China Ban Crypto” FUD has become a meme in the crypto space. It has happened on so many occasions over the past 4 years that it loses meaning. Like the boy that cries wolf, eventually no one listens anymore.

In the long term, this is actually positive. Like with the China Mining ban earlier this year, actions by the Chinese government force citizens and companies to invest elsewhere. That is exactly what has happened with hashpower moving to the US and other countries.

If this really does place a nail in the coffin of retail trading in China, then the FUD will no longer grip the crypto markets and we can return to all time highs.

Well, hopefully…

That’s if this Evergrande situation doesn’t spoil the party!

I know I have talked about it ad-nauseum but I really do think it's a big risk to all markets. If you don’t know what I am talking about, my recent video on it should explain it more in-depth.

The company missed a foreign bond interest payment and the Chinese government is starting to make preparations for the company’s demise. This is still likely to play itself out over the coming weeks but I wouldn’t ignore it as “baseless FUD”.

That is because fear can sometimes be good.

💯 Advanced Security Tips 💯

Quite often, I am asked by followers how I protect my cryptocurrency. I don’t always give the full breakdown as it can sometimes seem like a bit of overkill. I also don’t want to intimidate those new to the space with these relatively laborious processes (which they are sometimes).

Nevertheless, I am sure that there are many that would benefit from some of these methods that I use. Methods that not only protect my cryptocurrency but also my privacy and personal cybersecurity.

  • Computer Admins: The admin or “main” account on my PC / Mac is different from the account I use every day. That way, I have to fully approve all installations with the admin login credentials before they are installed. This is one additional barrier for Malware and it also means that if ever my PC is compromised via remote access they can’t get to a “root” user
  • Speaking of which, be very wary of any software that gives remote access to your device in general. The most popular of these is perhaps team viewer.
  • You may also want to consider using virtual machines for an additional layer of security. If you have to download a program for other purposes and are not particularly comfortable doing so on your main machine, spinning up a “sandbox” VM could help protect against unknown threats
  • I use a hardware wallet for my cold storage option for 90% of my funds. I have also set this up with a 2 of 3 shemir backup. You can read more about this backup method in my telegram post here. I will store those 3 separate seeds in 3 separate locations.
  • Always secure exchange accounts with 2FA. Never use sim based 2FA (because of Sim-swap attacks). While I do use authenticator apps for some 2FA logins, I purchased a security key a few months ago. There are many exchanges that support these security keys including Binance for example
  • Speaking of security keys, these can also be used to secure other sensitive accounts that require 2FA including email accounts. For those that remember our Google account issue about a month ago, a simple security key could have solved that.
  • Try to avoid reusing addresses when possible. This is not only suboptimal for your own privacy but it also impacts on the security of the broader Bitcoin network. I do know that generating a new address for all transactions is sometimes impractical so it is about striking a balance of course. That balance needs to be determined by yourself.
  • Use a VPN whenever possible. It’s much more prudent to cloak your home IP address when interacting with an open and permissionless network such as a cryptocurrency’s blockchain.

Those are some of the most important tips that I have for you at the moment. Of course, I must stress that I would not prescribe it for everyone - it is just what I personally do.

🔥 Deals of The Week 🔥

🔒 Level Up Your Crypto Security: While I have already shared some of my top security tips, There is a much simpler way to secure your crypto - and that is a hardware wallet.

But are they worth it and which one should you get? Well, I have already done a dedicated video on that - so, be sure to check that out if you want to learn more!

Of course, some of you may not have all the time to watch the video. So, I don’t mind telling you that the hardware wallet I personally use is a Trezor One! It supports over 1,000 different cryptocurrencies. So, I imagine that even the most avid altcoin dabbler will be able to store the crypto that they want here!

👉 Why Take The Risk? Get A Trezor!

🥊 Punchy Crypto Asset: It’s no secret that some people made a killing by snapping up hot .com domains back in the 1990’s. How much did some of these guys make? Well, was sold for a mindbogging $345 million - a tidy chunk of change indeed.

Needless to say, I missed the boat on that one and I bet most of you did too. However, there is potentially another similar opportunity with blockchain domains! Those domains are issued as an NFT. You could host a website on it and replace your crypto address with a human readable name too.

At Unstoppable Domains you can buy blockchain domains with interesting extensions like .zil, .crypto, .coin, .wallet, .bitcoin, .x, .888, .NFT, .DAO and .blockchain.

So, if you are looking to diversify your NFT portfolio into the more exotic end of the crypto markets, then blockchain domains could be right up your street. I actually did a comprehensive video all about the ins and outs of blockchain domains.

👉 Sign Up To Unstoppable Domains & Check Out Those Blockchain Domains!

🗞️ Crypto News Focus 🗞️

- Bitcoin Coming To Twitter - Twitter rolls out tippin with Bitcoin and explores verifying NFT pics.

- China & Crypto - China declares crypto illegal again!

- Hamster Trader - A Hamster Trading Crypto Beats the S&P 500.

🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮

  • Ultimate Gemini Review: Best US Exchange?
  • Top 5 Blockchain Games
  • Helium Crypto Review: worth it?
  • Avalanche Tutorial: What you need to know?
  • Worst Case For Crypto: Going To Zero?

🏆 What's New At This Week? 🏆

The Top 10 Crypto Telegram Channels

Using NiceHash For Profits: Beginners Guide

How to use Compound Finance: Beginner’s Guide

The Top 10 Crypto YouTubers

Now, that’s about all I have time for in this week's newsletter. However, I’d like to thank you all for supporting my work on YouTube.

As many of you will know, I have always refused to run ads on the channel. This means that my merch store is one of the main ways I am able to keep creating this content. I just wanted to give you a heads up and let you know that I have two new t-shirt designs in my store:

So, if you want to support the channel then be sure to check those out!

Anyhow, I hope you enjoy my latest video and I hope you have a relaxing Sunday!

Guy your crypto guy

Guy Turner

Guy is one of the founding members and face of the Coin Bureau. Like many of us, he is just an average joe who became “crypto curious” back in 2013. After recognising the potential of blockchain technology, Guy set off on a mission to create crypto educational content, working with others to start the Coin Bureau website and released our first video on YouTube in 2019. You can learn more about him in his Who is Guy? blogpost.

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