TOP Bitcoin Indicators You Aren’t Using!
A tumbleweed is blowing through the centre of Cryptoville (population: down bad). Right now, sentiment is almost at rock bottom, plenty of people have given up and no one new is entering the space. But, paying attention at times like this will pay off when market conditions improve.
For those still here, this means opportunity. It’s a time to focus and study free from hype and noise. A time to look at getting an edge over the competition who have taken their eyes off the ball.
A great way to do this is to seek out new indicators to help you analyse the market. After all, while there are plenty of great indicators out there already, the problem with using them is that everyone else is too. Your edge is dulled as a result. But, all is not lost, for those new indicators do exist and, in today’s video, we’re going to take you through some of the most intriguing ones.
Ark Invest and Glassnode have for the last two years been working on an on-chain analysis framework called ‘Cointime Economics’ and recently produced a report that explains what it’s all about. The report outlines the framework and its constituent parts and - crucially - explains how to use it. So, because we’re nice like that, we’ve broken it all down for you in the video you can watch right here.
📈 Crypto Market Forecast 📈
Looks like we could be in for a volatile week. That’s because there will be multiple macro and crypto factors that could move the market. Starting with the macro side, we have the CPI for August which will be published this Wednesday (13th September). By now you’ll know that if the CPI comes in higher than expected then the markets will dip, and if it comes in lower than expected then the markets will rip.
On that note, the CPI for July came in slightly lower than expected, and that’s despite all the base effects (which should have resulted in a slightly higher number). It’s possible that we’ll see a similar surprise to the downside this time, but it’s just as possible that there will be a surprise to the upside. This would be due to the recent resurgence in oil prices, driven in part by supply cuts, notably by the likes of Saudi Arabia and Russia.
This ties into the other macro factor to look out for, and that’s Asia. For starters, there’s China which has reportedly made significant developments on the microchip front, so much so that US lawmakers are calling for tech sanctions to be expanded. In case you missed the memo, China’s economy is already weak. Any additional sanctions could do damage, and potentially increase the chances that China will retaliate. This could hurt US tech and crypto by extension.
It’s not just China you need to be watching either. There’s some concerning news coming out of Japan as well. The Japanese yen continues to tumble, and people are understandably unhappy. This is reportedly putting pressure on the government and the BoJ to intervene to support the yen. This would mean selling US government debt, which would likely raise long-term interest rates in the US. That could do damage to both stocks and crypto.
When it comes to crypto factors to watch out for meanwhile, one of the most important right now is crypto regulations. As you read this, G20 countries are meeting in India to effectively finalise the global crypto regulation standards that the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and its ilk have been working on for months. The final document detailing these standards was published just a few days ago by the FSB and the IMF. What the G20 says about these could shake the crypto market.
Besides these factors, there are two tail risks that could affect the crypto market. The first tail risk is the war in Ukraine, which is showing no signs of stopping. This could cause supply-side inflation to flare up, which could force central banks to raise interest rates higher than expected. With winter approaching, now is the time for major moves on both sides. Funnily enough, European gas prices are already rising because of concerns coming out of Australia.
The second tail risk is of course the concerns around offshore crypto exchanges. Everyone has been focused on Binance because of the regulatory scrutiny and the recent high-profile departures. However, there have been a number of other exchange tokens besides BNB that have been falling in recent weeks. That said, the FUD around Binance refuses to go away and there’s still a decent chance that US regulators have a few rounds in the clip that they’re waiting to unload.
Of course, this ultimately amounts to speculation, but it’s nonetheless interesting to see that bearish traders and analysts are turning their attention to other offshore exchanges. Just don’t be surprised if there are still a few more nasty surprises coming down the pipe.
📉 FTX Selling: Fact or FUD? 📉
Earlier this week, crypto investors endured a collective panic attack when crypto media hinted that there was a massive incoming wave of selloffs. Specifically, the reports stated there was a significant movement of crypto assets held in the wallets owned by bankrupt crypto exchange FTX.
Blockchain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence estimated that over $10 million worth of digital assets in these wallets were bridged from Solana to Ethereum’s network since 31st August. Investors were worried that these transfers were the beginning of a series of token dumps relating to the exchange’s bankruptcy proceedings.
While FTX has since confirmed that the transfers were only part of a consolidation process, investors at the time were spooked over the sudden and unexplained movement of assets.
This fear was only further exacerbated by Crypto Twitter, as tweets began circulating that placed the value of the assets in the (Solana) wallets involved in the transfer at $1.5 billion.
While these claims are not entirely true (more on that shortly), the massive panic they triggered was to be expected, given that the exact value of FTX’s crypto holdings still remains uncertain. The closest idea we have of FTX’s holdings is a Reuters report from April that suggested FTX had recovered $7.3 billion of cash and crypto, but provided no distinction between the two.
Having said that, FTX liquidations might not have as much of an impact on the market as armchair analysts on Twitter will have you believe. The reality is that not all of the assets held by FTX can be realistically liquidated.
A closer look at the wallet addresses referenced in the tweet will reveal that a major chunk of the assets held in these wallets are dead, illiquid shit coins. Even the wrapped BTC (soBTC) and wrapped ETH (soETH) held in those wallets are no longer pegged to the values of the real assets and are actually trading at massive discounts of $1,328 and $159 respectively. Ironically, the de-pegging of these assets is due to FTX being the entity that maintained the reserves for these wrapped assets in the first place.
As for the liquidation process itself, it will happen slowly over an extended period of time. The latest plan submitted by FTX debtors proposes a weekly crypto liquidation limit of $100 million, with a provision to increase this limit to $200 million on an individual token basis. These limits are expected to minimise the impact of token sales, while simultaneously allowing FTX to make creditors whole.
However, at this point, the impact we should really be focusing on is the one felt by creditors, not the broader market.
It’s been almost a year since FTX filed for bankruptcy and there doesn’t seem to be a conclusion to the whole sorry tale coming anytime soon.
On average, typical Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings take around 17 months to conclude. For larger and more complex bankruptcy cases, this timeline can stretch as far as five years. This is especially true for bankruptcy cases involving the crypto industry, whose fallen titans seem to have had too much exposure to each other.
A prime example of recent complications affecting crypto bankruptcies would be the recent pushback by Genesis creditors against the deal made between Alameda Research and Genesis. Another factor significantly impairing creditor payouts is the cost associated with the processing of these incredibly complex bankruptcy cases.
A recent NY times article estimates that over $700 million has already been spent towards the bankruptcies of five major crypto firms, including FTX. CoinDesk reported that the legal costs for the FTX bankruptcy alone are as high as $1.5 million a day.
With every day that passes, the assets that can be redeemed by creditors shrink. The only winners in situations like these are the lawyers.
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📊 Personal Portfolio 📊
BTC 36.21% | ETH 30.19% | USDC 18.85% | USDT 7.54% | USD 3.81% | ATOM 2.31% | DOT 1.09%
🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮
- The Bitcoin War: Has the takeover begun?
- BIS Crypto Adoption: What to expect?
- Inflation & Economic Lies: Startling revelations!
- BIS Crypto Adoption Report: What you should know!
- Crypto’s Long Term Potential: What to look out for?
🏆 What's New at CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆
✅ Yield App Review: A Secure Digital Wealth Platform
✅ Top 6 (CeFi) Platforms: Earn Interest While HODLING
✅ The Future of Ethereum: Innovations and Trends
✅ BC Vault Review 2023: A Revolution in Cold Storage
✅ Ethereum Dapps: 10 Decentralized Apps You Can Use Right Now
✅ Ethereum Dominance: ETH vs. Other Blockchains
📖 Quote of the Week 📖
Bear markets can be rough, but they are also unique opportunities to identify hidden gems. The millionaires of the next bull market will be made by the decisions taken in this bear market.
“When it is dark enough, you can see the stars” - Ralph Waldo Emerson
Team Coin Bureau
Disclosure: Authors may own cryptoassets named in this newsletter. These are unqualified opinions, and a Coin Bureau newsletter, is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor.
Guy is one of the founding members and face of the Coin Bureau. Like many of us, he is just an average joe who became “crypto curious” back in 2013. After recognising the potential of blockchain technology, Guy set off on a mission to create crypto educational content, working with others to start the Coin Bureau website and released our first video on YouTube in 2019. You can learn more about him in his Who is Guy? blogpost.