What’s Driving BTC: Here’s What You Should be Watching!

If you want to understand why the crypto market is acting like it is on any given day, then you first need to understand what BTC is doing and why.

There are many ways to try and evaluate this, using the vast troves of information and analytics tools that are available. Some are pretty good, others… less so. One resource we here at the Coin Bureau have been making increasing use of is K33 Research, a crypto analytics firm that produces some impressively insightful material. If you haven’t watched our CEO Nic interviewing a couple of K33’s gigabrains over on Coin Bureau Clips in recent weeks, then you’re missing out.

Before you dig those interviews out however, you should start with today’s video. In it, we dive into K33’s recent report that looks at and analyses the factors that affect BTC’s price. It’s full of insights into how you can better understand the forces at play in the crypto market and use that understanding to gain an edge. As the bull market gathers steam, don’t miss this opportunity to level up your knowledge.

You can watch that video here.

📈 Crypto Market Forecast 📈

It’s going to be a very interesting week for the markets, and that’s mainly because of all the macro forces we’re going to experience. For starters, the CPI and PPI for March will be published on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. As always, higher-than-expected prints could cause markets to slide further, while lower-than-expected prints could cause a recovery.

Next, we have the escalating geopolitical tensions around the world. What’s fascinating is that the markets have been particularly concerned about what’s been going on in the Middle East. This is presumably because the Gaza war could become a regional one at a moment’s notice. This is reportedly why oil prices have been rising and why they may keep rising.

That’s because the UN recently passed a resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, but only until the end of Ramadan, which is this Tuesday. There had been reports that Israel had agreed to extend the ceasefire until the end of April at the behest of the US, but the US’s recent criticisms of attacks on aid workers have likely nullified this extension agreement.

But that’s just the macro side of the equation. The crypto side of the equation is also looking a bit dicey. That’s mainly because of all the leverage building up in Ethereum’s ecosystem. Ethena’s USDe stablecoin is one elephant in the room. Its size has ballooned to 2 billion dollars in less than two months, and will soon be partially backed by BTC.

The other elephant in the room is the Eigenlayer restaking protocol, which has accumulated over 11 billion dollars in ETH, making it the second-largest DeFi protocol by TVL. As Coinbase pointed out, this could introduce hidden risks to Ethereum’s ecosystem. This is an understatement given that there are now liquid restaking protocols that are even riskier.

Meanwhile, many institutions and analysts are coming out and claiming that ETH could avoid being classified as a security by the SEC under certain circumstances. It stands to reason that they wouldn’t be saying this if they didn’t believe there was a real risk the SEC could make this argument. Recall that the SEC is currently investigating Ethereum’s ecosystem.

As silly as it may sound however, the most significant crypto-specific factor that could weigh on the markets this week is the massive crash in the memecoin niche. Not surprisingly, memecoins were the hardest hit when the markets started turning down. What’s surprising is just how much their associated smart contract cryptos took a hit, namely Solana’s SOL.

If the memecoin craze comes to an end, or even just takes a breather, then it’s possible that SOL and other smart contract cryptos will see significant downside. This is seemingly confirmed by the ETH/BTC charts, which are flashing a death cross. But of course, the fact that this is starting to make the news suggests it could be a bottom signal.

Case in point, it looks like the inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs are starting to reaccelerate despite the recent dip. If this trend continues, it could be enough to revive the flagging animal spirits in the crypto market. Fortunately, or unfortunately, these animal spirits will probably return to playing with memecoins until new retail investors arrive and alts finally pump.

You can find out when altcoin season will really start by watching our video about that.

🤡 April Fools: Crypto Edition 🤡

Every year, during the first week of April, the crypto X community convenes to host an unofficial competition to see who can pull off the most outlandish, yet believable, pranks.

Prudent crypto investors know to take anything they see during this week with a pinch of salt. However, not everyone is as cautious - often leading to a whirlwind of misunderstandings and chaotic price charts.

This year as well, we saw a similar story play out. Here are some of the top pranks people fell for...

The first two were from the founders of the two most popular altcoin projects in the space - Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin and Solana’s Anatoly Yakovenko.

Vitalik’s prank for this year follows a theme similar to the ones from previous years - an article detailing a seemingly out-of-character/absurd idea with a deeper message at the end of it.

Last year, he wrote a piece titled “In Defense of Bitcoin Maximalism.” This was as absurd as it got when you consider that Ethereum stands at the top of the list of projects Bitcoin maxis hate with a vengeance.

Anyway, this year’s offering was a piece titled “Degen Communism: The Only Correct Political Ideology.” It appeared to encourage more risky behaviour by advocating for an ideology that embraces the chaos of the internet.

However Vitalik, in his usual fashion, added a deeper meaning to it by explaining how this would help achieve a more net-positive future in an increasingly digital and decentralised world.

In the case of crypto, Vitalik addresses how some of the most chaotic yet impactful trends experienced by the market, such as memecoins and airdrops, can be harnessed to redirect the benefits of this chaos towards public goods and protecting vulnerable individuals from its downsides.

As for Solana’s Anatoly Yakovenko meanwhile, he made an announcement about the launch of ‘BunkerCoin' - a revolutionary (fake) new project that would operate using “shortwave radio channels.”

The announcement poked fun at the cryptic language often found in the descriptions of new cryptocurrencies. To drive the point home, the project’s whitepaper incorporated a mix of technical jargon such as ZkProofs, Groth16 proofs, and a “Nakamoto-style longest chain rule.”

Unsurprisingly, someone else took the opportunity to capitalise on the post by creating a meme coin called BunkerCoin on the Solana blockchain. The token witnessed a 4000% increase within 24 hours, reaching a market capitalization of $50,000 shortly after its launch.

Speaking of Solana, another interesting prank this year came courtesy of Bankless host David Hoffman. Known for being an Ethereum maxi, David took advantage of April Fools’ Day to poke fun at rival blockchain Solana.

Tongue firmly in cheek, he declared that he was leaving Bankless to take up the role of VP of Decentralisation at the Solana Foundation - a not-so-subtle swipe at Solana’s oft-cited centralisation issues.

However, Solana maxis did not take that jibe lying down. Solana maxi and Helius founder Mert replied by tweeting that he was joining Bankless as its new host in David’s absence. He took a jab at David’s lack of technical qualifications and the recent BanklessDAO controversy.

And, on the subject of controversies, there were also a couple of pranks this year that were not received as well by the crypto community.

The first one was a fundraising announcement made by pseudonymous account Brileigh.eth (since made private). Notably, Brileigh tweeted that Juicebox - an Ethereum-based crowdfunding protocol - had secured a $69 million fundraising deal with crypto venture capital firm Paradigm.

This announcement saw the price of the protocol’s native token JBX surge more than 45% to $0.0043, only to plummet shortly after Brileigh made a follow-up post proclaiming the announcement to be an April Fools’ joke.

Brileigh was soon deluged with accusations of being a market manipulator. Not everyone was laughing, it seems.

The second entity to make an April fool of itself was Waves - a decentralised tech stack - whose pseudonymous founder “Sasha” announced that the protocol would be integrating with AI and replacing its “Waves” ticker with “AI.” The price of WAVES pumped by 5% before sliding back as people got wise to the gag - proving perhaps that the line between laughing and crying is a thin one.

A few other notable mentions meanwhile include BitMEX’s joke about GBTC outflows being zero and X user AutomataEmily’s screenshot of a fake court ruling showing that FTX creditors would receive 90 cents on the dollar for their claims against the exchange.

If you ask us, that last one takes the cake (and the plate it’s sitting on). And now there’s a whole year to wait until the next helping of hilarity.

🔥 Hot Deal of The Week 🔥

Markets seem to be heating up again and the Coin Bureau is putting out more content than ever before.

Sadly, all that quality content costs money.

One thing that many people ask is “how can they support the Coin Bureau”? Well, one easy way is to head over to our merch store and stocking up on some crypto merch.

Recently, we’ve just done a 🪂 new merch drop 🪂 So, you might want to pick something up whilst stocks last.

What’s new on the shelves?

* NEW Ethereum t-shirt designed by the CB team
* Michelangelo t-shirt - one for the fashionable crypto hodler
* Bitcoin phone case
* Bitcoin waist pack
* Ethereum beanie

We’ve got a bunch of other new merch for you to check out. So, if you would like to support our work on YouTube, then you’ll want to check that out.

👉 Head over to the Coin Bureau merch store

🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮

* Layer 3’s: What are they? Any potential?
* Making Millions Trading Solana Memecoins: Complete Guide!!
* Ark Invest Report: The biggest market trends revealed!
* Layer 3s: Everything You NEED To Know!

🏆 What's New at CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆

* Demystifying Crypto Gaming: Insights on Where to Place Your Bets!
* Exploring the Frontier: The Top Crypto Narratives of 2024
* M6 Labs Crypto Market Pulse: Alpha and Opportunity Everywhere!
* How to Stake MATIC with Your Ledger
* How to Buy Litecoin: Ultimate Guide to Buying LTC
* Future of Crypto: Analyzing Adoption, Regulation and AI
* Ethereum Spot ETFs: Staking, Dividends & More
* Guarda Wallet Review 2024: Non-Custodial, Multicurrency Champ!
* Uniswap Review: Decentralised Trading Protocol

Press Releases

* TOKEN2049 Dubai Officially Sold Out with 10,000 Attendees Following Unprecedented Demand

📖 Quote of the Week 📖

While it’s all well and good to enjoy this bull market, be sure to learn from the mistakes of the past. Manage your risks, DYOR, hold your own keys and strategically take profits.

“The four most dangerous words in investing are, it’s different this time.” - Sir John Templeton

Team Coin Bureau

Disclosure: Authors may own cryptoassets named in this newsletter. These are unqualified opinions, and a Coin Bureau newsletter, is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor. 

Guy Turner

Guy is one of the founding members and face of the Coin Bureau. Like many of us, he is just an average joe who became “crypto curious” back in 2013. After recognising the potential of blockchain technology, Guy set off on a mission to create crypto educational content, working with others to start the Coin Bureau website and released our first video on YouTube in 2019. You can learn more about him in his Who is Guy? blogpost.

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