Happy New Year!
There have been a lot of predictions made over the past few weeks. Predictions about prices, events and the general direction of crypto. I have even gone over some of these predictions in recent videos.
However, there is one thing that is missing and that’s my personal predictions!
I have quite a few to make. These range from where we can see the markets heading, which themes are likely to dominate and what threats we could face.
So, if you guys want to start 2022 off with a bang, then this video should be one of the first you watch.
📊 Main Portfolio 📊
No changes to the main portfolio this week folks. Happy with the allocation so far. Yet, as mentioned, I am looking to pick up a few more gaming & metaverse plays in the next few weeks. Follow my Telegram channel for these live updates.
ETH 27.88% | BTC 20.53% | SOL 12.11% | DOT 9.67% | ATOM 5.81% | FTM 4.32% | HNT 3.26% | PAXG 2.95% | MATIC 2.59% | RUNE 2.21% | ADA 1.94% | UST 1.87% | AR 1.38% | INJ 1.34% | YGG 1.07% | LINK 0.83% | XDEFI 0.25%
🖼 NFT Portfolio 🖼
No additional NFT purchases this week. Although the crazy performance in my Mutant Apes means that they make up a much larger proportion of my portfolio now.
MAYC 93.59% | Meebit 6.41%
📈 Thoughts on Market 📈
This week I don’t get to brag about the prediction I made in last week’s crypto review, because it looks like I was wrong. I predicted that we’d see an inverse head and shoulders pattern that would take BTC to the 55k range, and though we did see a slight pump to 50k, we fell back down shortly afterwards. Here’s why I think that happened.
First, it’s the holidays. This means there aren’t all that many people trading and that means trading volume is low. When trading volume is low, prices tend to be more volatile, and the low balance of BTC on exchanges adds fuel to the fire. It looks like some whales took this opportunity to create a dip to buy. Case and point, check out this massive purchase of 9900 BTC.
Second, options expire. December 31st saw over 6 billion dollars in BItcoin options expiries. As I’ve mentioned many times before, options expiries tend to have a large impact on the spot markets. This is because of all the market makers adjusting their positions and in this case most options traders were positioned bullish.
Given this fact, it’s surprising that BTC didn’t pump more than it did, and this seems to be because of the third factor: Chinese users of cryptocurrency exchanges. Binance, Huobi, and Kucoin are among the many crypto exchanges that announced they would be restricting or banning Chinese users by December 31st. This likely caused a lot of selling on that date.
Last but not least, it looks like some of the FATF’s dreaded crypto “recommendations” are starting to be enforced in some countries and by some crypto companies. In this case, that’s identifying any “unverified” external wallets. This is one of the more severe “recommendations”, and you can learn about it and all the others coming down the pipe by watching this video.
The good news is that it’s going to take some time for other countries and crypto companies to start enforcing the FATF’s dystopian recommendations. The first movers are always the companies and countries with the most aggressive regulations, so take this as a sign of things to come rather than a sign that the end is nigh.
🔚 Upcoming Crypto Milestones 🔚
Over the holidays I got a lot of questions from friends and family about what the crypto market will look like in 2022. In case it wasn’t clear by now, I’m pretty confident we’re finally going to see the blow off top of this bull market by the end of the first quarter. This is mainly because almost every major crypto project has an upcoming milestone that’s expected to occur by then.
Starting with Bitcoin, I really think we’re going to see one of those recently delayed spot Bitcoin ETF applications approved. I’m even more convinced now that the SEC has hired a crypto advisor to help Gary Gensler sort things out. This could turn out to be bad news, but if I was in Gary’s shoes, I would also like to have a fall guy to blame in case a spot Bitcoin ETF goes badly.
Next up is Ethereum, which is in its final stages of testing before the rollout of Ethereum 2.0. No exact dates have been provided there, but development has apparently been going smoothly even since a few bugs were discovered in the fall. These delayed The Merge which was expected to occur as early as the end of 2021. A merge by March seems plausible at this point.
Cardano is another cryptocurrency that could see some fireworks in the next few months. Although ADA hasn’t performed all that well recently, a few of Cardano’s most promising dApps are on the cusp of deployment. These should create significant demand for ADA. Cardano also has another hard fork combinator event scheduled for February which I’ll explain later this week.
Meanwhile, Polkadot is expected to run another 5 rounds of Parachain slot auctions between now and March 10th. Besides the demand for DOT these could create, each auction locks up DOT, effectively taking it out of circulation. As basic economics dictates, the less of something you have, the more its value rises assuming demand stays the same.
The last crypto milestone I want to mention here is actually Litecoin’s upcoming Mimblewimble implementation. For those who don’t know, Mimblewimble is basically a privacy preserving layer 2 for Litecoin. If successful, this could put LTC in competition with other privacy coins, especially since you can find LTC almost anywhere you can find BTC. Current ETA is the end of January.
🗳 The DAO Future 🗳
Lately, I have become fascinated with the concept of DAOs or Decentralised Autonomous Organisations. It’s a topic I have touched on before and something that I talked about in my recent New Year’s Resolution video on my clips channel.
The truth is, I really think that 2022 could be a year for DAOs to become serious business in the crypto space. This is something that Ryan Selkis at Messari also predicted in his 2022 crypto report. In fact, Messari have even put their money where their mouth is with a new governance platform called “Governor”.
This is because of two major needs for these organisations.
- Decentralised governance of Open Source protocols
- Community investing in a digital age
When it comes to 1, we are likely to see way more DeFi projects and protocols integrate these DAOs into their structure. This is because of the pressing need to remove all appearances of centralised control. The more distributed the decision making, the less the regulators are able to apply pressure on one particular individual or company.
If 2021 has taught us anything, it’s that the SEC and other regulators definitely have their sites on Defi. We have also learned that these Decentralised Finance protocols are not always that “decentralised”. Getting to that benchmark of “sufficiently” decentralised is key for the protocol to fully survive. In fact, the SEC has even stated that those networks that are sufficiently decentralised are less likely to be a security. This is perhaps the reason that Ethereum never got hit by the SEC but companies like Ripple have.
The point is that DAO structures are going to be pivotal for the DeFi protocols that we love to reach their full potential. Indeed, if you take a look at some of the most valuable DAOs out there, most of them are treasury DAOs for these Defi protocols.
Then, when it comes to community investing, DAOs are going to allow every single individual the ability to be part of a much more inclusive investment landscape. No longer will High Net Worth Individuals and VCs have exclusive rights to particular assets.
For example, would you have ever thought that a collection of disparate and anonymous investors would be in a bidding competition with one of the richest people in the world for a copy of the US constitution? Or that another group of anons could band together in a bid to buy the Blockbuster brand? These are only two of a handful of examples.
Then of course you have these DAOs beginning to play an active role in investments in digital assets like NFTs. As I mentioned in my newsletter two weeks ago, fractionalising and tokenising NFTs could be viewed as a security. However, if you own tokens in a completely decentralised organisation that invests in these assets, that could be something different. There are many of these DAOs that have been buying rare NFTs like PleasrDAO and FWB.
Or how about all these Gaming Guild DAOs like YGG which I talked about a few days ago in this post. The perfect confluence of NFTs, GameFi & DAOs which I think could emerge as another important trend in 2022.
DAOs could also become the driving force behind the wide scale adoption and development of crypto & Web 3.0 technology. You need look no further than the likes of BitDAO which has a gargantuan $2.5 billion treasury. One that is helping to “build the future of finance”. A DAO that is funding R&D in some of the world’s top Universities. A DAO that you can be a part of by merely being a token holder.
There are of course many other examples and use cases for these DAOs and I do hope to dive into them more this year. But I don’t think it’s hyperbolic to say that they could make the world a better and more representative place.
🔥 Deal of The Week 🔥
💵 Top Crypto Tax Tool: Hopefully you ushered in the New Year with some epic crypto gains. However, with 2021 now in the rear view mirror there is something you probably need to think about – doing those boring crypto taxes.
Sure you can pretend those trades never happened. However, who needs the stress of the tax man knocking on their door?
Yes, preparing those taxes with all those spreadsheets is a pain in the derriere and can literally take days of your time! Those that value their time, will probably want to automate as much of that as possible by using a top crypto tax solution.
The tool I personally use is Koinly. This solution automates crypto tax reports for the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, Brazil, UK and European countries.
With Koinly you can get those tax reports in under 20 mins! So yep, I prefer to embrace that little time saver over spending days learning about tax rules, collecting trade details and crunching those numbers.
👉 Get Koinly & do your crypto taxes the easy way!
🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮
- Best Crypto Gifts for 2022
- Crazy Arcane Crypto Report!
- Crypto consensus mechanisms explained!
- Top Crypto Tax Tools 2022!
- Kucoin Vs Binance: Which is best?
- Cardano Update: Where is ADA Headed?
- Tezos: XTZ Still Have potential?
- Coinmarketcap Vs Coingecko: Which is best?
🏆 What’s New At CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆
✅ The Sandbox Review: Have we missed the Boat?!
✅ Top 5 (CeFi) Lending Platforms: Earn Interest While HODLING
✅ Yield Guild Games: The BEST Guild In GameFi?
That’s about all for this newsletter. However, I do want to wish you all a very Happy New Year from everyone over here at the Bureau! Here is a special thank you video from some of the members.
We are excited about bringing you even more of that crypto content you crave and upping the quality! That’s what you deserve and what my team and I aim to deliver.
Thanks again for all your amazing support.
Guy your crypto chap