Although I’m fully committed to the crypto space, I have sometimes asked myself what the worst case for crypto is. That’s important as knowing the maximum downside possible can help inform broader investment decisions.
So, can crypto really ever be “banned”? Or is there a chance that it could go to zero?
Today, I explore the topic in an in-depth video. I analyse some of the most well known risks we see today – everything from new legislation to security flaws, from a Tether collapse to regulatory overreach.
I also break down some of the cryptocurrencies and protocols that could be at greatest risk from these potential threats.
So, I know it’s not the most pleasant topic, but it still needs to be analysed.
You can watch that video here.
📊 Portfolio Update 📊
Took a little bit more profit on SOL given that it was making up a large percentage of my portfolio. I also eventually decided to pick up some HNT. For those of you who watched my video last week on Helium, you will have seen that I was really bullish on the project. This was bought partly through some of the funds from SOL sale as well as some of my USDC pile.
There are a few other altcoins that I am considering but I will let you know about in my Telegram channel – Now officially VERIFIED! ✅ Here is a snapshot of the updated portfolio:
ETH 26.25% | BTC 24.18% | SOL 11.95% | DOT 10.04% | PAXG 4.19% | ADA 4.14% | USDC 3.95% | ATOM 3.62% | UST 2.74% | INJ 1.93% | RUNE 1.79% | HNT 1.69% | AR 1.37% | LINK 1.1% | MATIC 1.05%
📈 Thoughts on Market 📈
BTC is up almost 10k since last week’s newsletter. That’s pretty crazy, but in retrospect it was clearly visible on the charts. Pop open BTC/USDT or whatever your preferred trading pair is and set it to daily.
Notice how it rallied up from 40k to 48k, paused, and kept going? This is a very common bullish pattern called a bull flag (or as I like to call it, a topless P).
We seem to be seeing the same pattern forming again albeit slightly more drawn out. If it plays out, we could rally back up to 64k. This time around we will have way more room to the upside though, because Google Search Trends for cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, Ethereum etc. are still pretty stagnant. What this means is that the retail FOMO hasn’t really come in yet.
As reported by CoinTelegraph, CoinDesk, and other crypto news, the rally we saw last week was driven primarily by institutional investors speculating that a Bitcoin ETF approval could be just around the corner. This is a bit strange though, because the SEC recently announced they had delayed a series of Bitcoin ETF applications until November and December.
In any case, when the Bitcoin ETF comes (and it will come eventually), it could mark the top of this crypto market cycle the same way that the introduction of the CME Bitcoin futures during the last bull market. One thing to keep in mind there is that the announcement of the CME Bitcoin futures didn’t mark the top. It was the day those futures actually began trading.
Even though Bitcoin is in the spotlight right now and probably will be for a while, it’s only a matter of time before investors get bored with BTC and go looking for bigger gains with altcoins. When that happens we will see an altcoin season unlike any other. As such, if there are any altcoins you’ve been looking to get your hands on, now might be a good time (not financial advice!).
🧐 Latest Tether FUD 🧐
Tether is once again back in the spotlight. This time it is due to an investigative piece in Bloomberg. I wouldn’t dismiss it outright as it was a really interesting read. There were also some pieces in there that we hadn’t originally known about Tether.
Here were some of the main highlights:
- Tether Loaned Celsius $1bn USDT in exchange for Bitcoin as collateral. This would mean that some of the reserves are loans from Celsius
- Commercial Paper: Tether has a lot of it. If correct, it would make Tether the 7th largest holder of such debt. There is no breakdown of what this commercial paper is but according to a document seen by the journalist, it includes billions in Chinese company debt. This is something I talked about in my Evergrande video.
- A previous banker of Tether said that the company had put reserves at risk by investing as if it were a “hedge fund”
- Tether’s main bank in the Bahamas no longer holds the bulk of the assets. They only retain about $15 billion
Now, these are indeed legitimate concerns that once again raise the question of whether Tether is 100% backed by reserves. It once again raises the spectre of whether Tether could be at risk in a modern day “run on the bank”.
That all being said – Tether remains operating. There has never been an occasion during which they have denied a redemption request from a client. Large crypto companies from exchanges to lending platforms and the like routinely redeem billions. I find it hard to believe that these individuals would be confident using USDT if they had these suspicions.
Moreover, Tether has settled their case with the New York DA. I can’t imagine the DA would have allowed them to settle if they could find any evidence of reserves not actually being present.
Also, not that I am a fan about whataboutism, but let’s not forget that banks in the US are not required to hold any reserves at all for their outstanding loans.
So, should we be worried about Tether?
Well, yes. But not because of it being illiquid. The main risks for Tether are what regulators have planned.
It seems pretty clear that the current administration would like to regulate stablecoins like banks. There are only certain companies in the stablecoin space that would be able to do this and those would be the onshore US based ones (USDC, Paxos etc).
It was also disclosed this week that USDC received a subpoena from the SEC and that they are cooperating with them. And, just two days ago it was reported that the White House was considering a wide ranging executive order on cryptocurrencies – one that you can be certain will be targeted at stablecoin issuers.
If US regulators require exchanges to only use US registered stablecoins, it could severely damage the liquidity of offshore stablecoin issuers such as Tether. Any restrictive regulation could actually precipitate the redemption crisis that many fear.
So, I’m less concerned about the FUD coming from the media outlets and more concerned about the actual statements coming from US regulators. It is for this reason that I don’t hold USDT as a stable store of value in my portfolio.
🔝 Top Newbie Tips 🔝
I know the crypto market is looking pretty good right now, but don’t get caught up in the hype just yet. There are still a lot of risks for the crypto market (as mentioned above). The average crypto investor seems to be ignoring these risks as evidenced by the sudden increase in market greed.
And of course, where there is greed, there are meme coins. I’ve lost count of the number of meme coins being showcased by CoinMarketCap. One of these is Shiba Inu, which a lot of people are asking about again. As I mentioned in my video about SHIB, it will never reach a dollar, much less a cent, because then it would have a larger market cap than Bitcoin.
If you’re wondering why SHIB is pumping, it’s for the same reason that every meme coin pumps: price manipulation. In this case, that’s an anonymous whale buying up more than 50 million dollars in SHIB within a span of a few days, causing everyone to FOMO in which kept the hype train going. Again, this is the case with almost every meme coin you see, so please, be careful.
Besides meme coins, the other thing you need to be on the lookout for these days is crypto scams. I’ve been doing my best to delete comments from scammers across my social media platforms, but even a combination of me + my team + a scam/spam comment bots aren’t enough to fight them all off, and a few of you are still getting hurt on a daily basis.
Thankfully I’m verified everywhere except Instagram which should minimise the damage, but I know there will still be a few outliers because crypto scammers can be really convincing. Pro tip: watch my video about crypto scams so you know what to look out for.
Better yet, share this video with any friends who are new to crypto and tell them to watch it before they dare to put a dime into any old shitcoin.
🔥 Deals of The Week 🔥
📈 Top Crypto Exchange: Those crypto markets have sure been soaring over the past week. Maybe you feel that you need to top up your portfolio and get your altcoin positions set for the next epic run? To do that, you’re going to need a top-notch crypto exchange.
But which one do you choose?
Well, you’ll need access to an exchange with a plethora of different exotic altcoins and super low fees – that way you help maximise your gains.
The exchange I am using to get all that is Kucoin where you have access to hundreds of different altcoins. On top of that, I’ve even got you a special deal over there. This gives you a trading fee discount of up to 60%!
Want to learn more about the ins and outs of this exchange? Well, you’ll want to watch my dedicated Kucoin video.
👉 Sign Up To Kucoin & Get Up To 60% Fee DISCOUNT!
📊 Automate Portfolio Rebalancing: Yes, it is super exciting to see your portfolio growing and racking up insane gains. However, the truth is that a good chunk of that overall performance could be down to an altcoin or two exploding. This can leave your portfolio overexposed to a single project.
But what is the solution?
Well, if you have the time you could manually rebalance that portfolio every couple of days. Or you could automate that entire process using a tool like Shrimpy.
So, you might want to check that out if you want to save some time here. On top of that, I’ve also secured you an exclusive 30% discount for Shrimpy subscriptions.
👉 Try Shrimpy & Get An Exclusive 30% Discount!
👕 New Merch Available In Store 👕
Most of you know I have always refused to run ads on the channel. I find ads annoying and I am sure that you guys do too.
So, instead of claiming that ad money, I thought it would be better to open up my merch store and give you guys the option of supporting the channel over there instead.
This week I have added three new products to the store:
- One for the ladies: BTC Multicolour circle t-shirt
- For the Bitcoin fans: BTC Word Game sweatshirt!
- For ETH lovers: ETH Word Game sweatshirt
All sales from the store help me keep producing content on the channel and keep it completely ad free for everyone.
Thanks in advance for your support here!
🗞️ Crypto News Focus 🗞️
– Bank of America Starts Crypto Research Department – Weren’t these guys anti-crypto?
– Celebs Slammed For Promoting Crypto – The Hollywoodisation of crypto a moral disaster?
– JPM At It Again – JPM CEO claims that BTC has ‘no value’ and warns that authorities will soon ‘regulate the hell out of it’!
🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮
- Complete Opensea Guide
- What Central Banks have in Store!
- COTI Cryptocurrency Review: Any good?
- Mindblowing BofA Report!!
- Coinbase Pro Vs FTX: Which is best?
- Upcoming Energy Crisis: Bad for Bitcoin?
- Complete Guide to Algorand Defi
🏆 What’s New At CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆
✅ Best Ways to EARN Free Crypto: Easy Money?
But what else has my team been up to on CoinBureau.com? Well, this week we have just launched CoinBureau news! That’s the place to go if you want detailed crypto news coverage from the Bureau.
Now, that’s about all I have time for this newsletter. However, I want to love you and leave you with a big thank you for continuing to support my work on YouTube! I know that the Coin Bureau only exists thanks to you guys and I am so grateful for all that.
That is part of the reason why I have been toying with the idea of holding a crypto event in London to meet and greet some of you guys! I’ll be sure to keep everyone updated on that if this goes ahead.
Anyhow, I hope you have an amazing Sunday and you find my latest video interesting.
Guy your crypto guy