Wen Altcoin Season?!

Anyone claiming that Christmas tis the season to be jolly clearly doesn’t know what they’re talking about. As anyone who’s been in crypto for long enough can tell you, the jollity only really kicks in when alt season comes around - and it makes Christmas look stale by comparison.

The annoying thing about alt season though is that it doesn’t have a set date in the calendar. There are all manner of indicators, charts, tea leaves and movements of celestial bodies that need to be consulted before it can be officially declared to be underway. And, it sure as heck doesn’t come around once a year.

In case some of crypto’s recent price action has given you the impression that alt season is already upon us, allow me to say that it categorically isn’t. But it is approaching, so the question then becomes: when will it get here? And how will we know when it’s arrived? And what then?

Fear not, for the answers to all those questions and more are to be found in today’s video. We go over all the ducks that need to get into a row in order for the festivities to begin. We look at why alt season hasn’t kicked off already and what cryptos you need to focus on when it does. We also clear up once and for all what the true definition of the term ‘alt season’ actually is. Get those calendars ready.

You can watch that video here.

📈 Crypto Market Forecast 📈

It looks like it could be a quiet week in the crypto market. That’s because there don’t seem to be any significant macro or crypto factors that could push prices around. The biggest macro factor is probably the Personal Consumption Expenditures index or PCE, which comes out on Friday. However, given how dovish the Fed was in its recent press conference, despite the high CPI and PPI, a high PCE probably won’t do much to prices.

From a structural perspective, it’s possible we could see some volatility in stocks and crypto because of the quarterly options expiry on Thursday. However, it appears that the options strike pricing for BTC isn’t far off from its current levels. This means we may not see much volatility in either direction, as there’s no incentive for whales to push prices up or down.

Similarly, it appears that the flows for the spot Bitcoin ETFs are looking mixed. As you might have heard, net flows were negative for multiple days in a row last week. Of course, most of these outflows were due to GBTC holders exiting via Grayscale’s spot ETF. The more eye-opening statistic was BlackRock’s ETF seeing its second-lowest day of inflows.

If you watched our video analysing the recent BTC crash, then these flows shouldn’t come as a surprise to you. That’s because we mentioned that the passive flows that have been propping up the markets pulled back about two weeks ago, at least according to macro analyst Cem Karsan. Obviously, stocks have since marched higher, and BTC also saw a nice recovery.

The thing is that the rallies in both assets appear to be due to the aforementioned dovishness from the Fed at its most recent press conference. In other words, it was in response to a bullish macro catalyst. In the absence of any additional bullish macro catalysts, it’s possible that crypto and stocks will resume their slide lower due to the reduced levels of passive flows.

This ties into the crypto catalysts. Consider that tax season is imminent. While it’s true that many retail investors will be getting tax rebates that could get YOLOed into altcoins, they first need to pay their taxes on last year’s income and any crypto gains. For reference, the 15th April is the due date for taxes in the US. Some retail investors could sell crypto in order to make their payments.

At the same time, storm clouds are forming over Ethereum’s ecosystem due to the revelation that the SEC is probing the entities behind the project. Naturally, the SEC believes that ETH is a security and is looking for proof. The fact that the regulator refused to clarify its stance on ETH, or mention it in other lawsuits, could mean this has been in the works for a while.

Whatever the case, there are now concerns that the SEC’s probes into Ethereum could affect the spot Ethereum ETF approvals. From our perspective, there’s nothing to be concerned about until the SEC formally sues the entities behind Ethereum. There’s a good chance the regulator will realise that this is a futile endeavour, as ETH is in fact ‘sufficiently decentralised’.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin halving is rapidly approaching and is scheduled for the 19th or 20th April, depending on your source. There could be a lot of BTC buys leading up to the halving. This could boost the rest of the crypto market, but it’s likely that altcoins would continue to lag. Besides the selling from retail investors who owe taxes, there still aren’t that many of them around.

In sum then, we’re likely in for another choppy week in crypto and stocks. It’s too soon to see any big bullish or bearish crypto catalysts, but we could see some buying and selling taking place ahead of these (be they taxes, the ETFs, or otherwise).

🧠 AI Agents 🧠

Just a few weeks ago, we covered the potential of the Crypto x AI narrative, detailing how projects in that narrative can broadly be grouped under three tracks - the ‘assetization of computing power’; the ‘assetization of models’ and the ‘assetization of data.’

And, given that NVIDIA’s global artificial intelligence conference ‘NVIDIA GTC’ just happened this week, we figure it’s time we take a deeper look into the AI x Crypto ecosystem. Specifically, decentralised AI Agents.

We believe AI Agents will be the first category out of the AI x Crypto narrative to achieve widespread retail adoption. The thesis is simple - convenience trumps all. Allow us to explain.

Internet giant Google grew to where it is today mostly on the back of one simple product - its search engine. In fact, Google’s share of the search engine market is over 90% and its website is one of the most accessed web platforms worldwide.

The simple reason behind its success is the convenience it offers users via the curation of reputable information sources.

However, with the launch of ChatGPT, we’re beginning to see hints of a future where users prefer such AI chatbots for curated information rather than Google search.

In fact, it wouldn’t be a mischaracterisation to call this the first wave of ‘AI agents.’ Notably, University of Oxford students Mohammed Baioumy and Alex Cheema have labelled these platforms as “information agents” in their recently-published primer on the subject.  

However, we believe the real potential of AI agents is being unlocked in the second wave of projects that follow the launch of ChatGPT.

Specifically, projects that focus on creating ‘autonomous agents’ - or ‘action agents’, as Baioumy and Cheema call them. These agents not only curate and synthesise a valid presentation of information, they are also capable of executing a series of actions based on the user’s input.

Imagine being able to verbally instruct an AI program to order and pay for your lunch online, without any additional action from your side. Or a scenario where your AI Agent is able to remember instructions and execute actions around your house, including opening the door when a particular car enters the driveway, etc.

In short, Tony Stark’s Jarvis.

While we’re many steps away from reaching that stage, there are already a plethora of projects within the crypto ecosystem that are building towards employing AI agents for specific use cases.

One of the most notable ones is the use of AI Agents in gaming. Specifically, AI Agents can function either as the player, avatars or even NPCs within games. Using blockchain rails and dedicated wallets, these AI agents can even transact autonomously within the in-game economy.

Games like Parallel Colony, Altered State Machine, Paima Studios and AI Arena are leading the charge on this front.  

Meanwhile, another place where AI agents have deep utility is within the content and social media sector. One of the more popular niches within social media businesses is content creation and influencer marketing.

AI Agents will allow brands to bring some of their IP, such as popular fictional characters, to life. AI Agents will allow the users of the platform to simulate an actual conversation with the characters, thereby extending the utility of their IP assets. Projects such as MyShell.ai and Creator Bid are leading the charge within this vertical.

In sum, we expect the utility of AI Agents to continue expanding. This is definitely a segment to keep an eye on.

🔥 Hot Deals of The Week 🔥

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🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮

* Ultimate Guide To OKX: Step-by-step guide
* Solana Update: What’s the potential in 2024?
* Is ETH A Security? Everything you need to know!
* Microstrategy & Crypto: You need to know this!

🏆 What's New at CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆

* Best Ways to Buy Bitcoin With PayPal: Beginners Guide 2024
* Blockchain Beyond Cryptocurrency: Its Impact on Industry 4.0
* NEAR Protocol Review 2024: Updates You Don't Want to Miss!
* Bitcoin vs Ethereum: Clash of the Crypto Titans
* Top Crypto Copy Trading Platforms in 2024
* M6 Labs Crypto Market Pulse: Rise of Depin, Solana Madness & Base Ready To Moon

Press Releases

* CoinTracking: Your Top Choice for Crypto Taxes in the US
* ParallelChain: Revolutionise Web3 Identity With AI
* Affyn Redefines Web3 Gaming with Buddy Arena's Multi-Chain Global Launch

📖 Quote of the Week 📖

There are far too many people who appear to just be apeing into any random coin/token that gets mentioned by their favourite influencer. However, by deploying such a ‘spray and pray’ approach you not only reduce your chances of long-term success, but you also learn nothing in the process.

“Know what you own, and why you own it” - Peter Lynch

Team Coin Bureau

Disclosure: Authors may own cryptoassets named in this newsletter. These are unqualified opinions, and a Coin Bureau newsletter, is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor. 

Guy Turner

Guy is one of the founding members and face of the Coin Bureau. Like many of us, he is just an average joe who became “crypto curious” back in 2013. After recognising the potential of blockchain technology, Guy set off on a mission to create crypto educational content, working with others to start the Coin Bureau website and released our first video on YouTube in 2019. You can learn more about him in his Who is Guy? blogpost.

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